U.S. on Track for Largest One-Year Drop in Murders Ever Recorded
Preliminary crime data indicate a significant nationwide decline in homicides and violent crime following peaks during the pandemic.
The United States appears poised to record the largest one-year decline in homicides on record in 2025, according to analyses of preliminary crime statistics compiled by expert Jeff Asher and aggregated in the Real Time Crime Index.
Year-over-year data through October suggest that murders nationwide have fallen by nearly twenty percent compared with the same period in 2024, a sharper decrease than the reductions seen in recent years.
This trend follows broader declines in violent crime after the spike experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Real Time Crime Index — which draws on monthly reporting from hundreds of law enforcement agencies across the country — shows substantial drops not only in murders but also in other major crime categories.
Robberies and motor vehicle thefts have fallen at double-digit rates, and aggravated assaults have also declined, suggesting that the reduction in killings is part of a more extensive downturn in violent crime.
Several U.S. cities long affected by high levels of gun violence have reported pronounced declines.
For example, Albuquerque, New Mexico experienced a more than thirty percent drop in murders; Baltimore recorded a thirty percent reduction; Atlanta saw a twenty-six percent decrease; and Birmingham, Alabama posted the largest decrease at nearly fifty percent.
Cities including Memphis and Chicago also reported homicide declines approaching twenty to twenty-eight percent in 2025 compared with the prior year.
Data from the Gun Violence Archive further support the downward trend, with fatal shootings and shooting incidents down relative to 2024.
Analysts caution that preliminary figures can be revised as more complete reporting becomes available, and official FBI national crime statistics for 2025 will not be finalized until the following year.
Even so, early measures indicate that the homicide rate could reach historic lows, potentially falling below levels recorded in years past, including 2014, which is widely regarded as one of the lowest in modern U.S. history.
Experts and researchers have attributed long-term declines in violent crime to a range of factors, including sustained law enforcement efforts, community intervention programs, and broader social trends.
While public perception often diverges from statistical realities, the emerging data point to a significant and widespread reduction in lethal violence across diverse regions of the country.
Year-over-year data through October suggest that murders nationwide have fallen by nearly twenty percent compared with the same period in 2024, a sharper decrease than the reductions seen in recent years.
This trend follows broader declines in violent crime after the spike experienced during the COVID-19 pandemic.
The Real Time Crime Index — which draws on monthly reporting from hundreds of law enforcement agencies across the country — shows substantial drops not only in murders but also in other major crime categories.
Robberies and motor vehicle thefts have fallen at double-digit rates, and aggravated assaults have also declined, suggesting that the reduction in killings is part of a more extensive downturn in violent crime.
Several U.S. cities long affected by high levels of gun violence have reported pronounced declines.
For example, Albuquerque, New Mexico experienced a more than thirty percent drop in murders; Baltimore recorded a thirty percent reduction; Atlanta saw a twenty-six percent decrease; and Birmingham, Alabama posted the largest decrease at nearly fifty percent.
Cities including Memphis and Chicago also reported homicide declines approaching twenty to twenty-eight percent in 2025 compared with the prior year.
Data from the Gun Violence Archive further support the downward trend, with fatal shootings and shooting incidents down relative to 2024.
Analysts caution that preliminary figures can be revised as more complete reporting becomes available, and official FBI national crime statistics for 2025 will not be finalized until the following year.
Even so, early measures indicate that the homicide rate could reach historic lows, potentially falling below levels recorded in years past, including 2014, which is widely regarded as one of the lowest in modern U.S. history.
Experts and researchers have attributed long-term declines in violent crime to a range of factors, including sustained law enforcement efforts, community intervention programs, and broader social trends.
While public perception often diverges from statistical realities, the emerging data point to a significant and widespread reduction in lethal violence across diverse regions of the country.
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